Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
MEX:ZTO N vs EXPD, CHRW, FDXFw: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.94
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jun. 27, 2026.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 84/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to EXPD and CHRW?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Transportation industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Transportation company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01%. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN546.16, compared to a current price of MXN426.00 — trading 22% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 84/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of MXN426.00 is trading 22% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN546.16.
Key valuation signals for MEX:ZTO N:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
GF Value™: MXN546.16 vs. price of MXN426.00 (22% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ZTO N stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
84GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MEX:ZTO N
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
MEX:ZTO N has been successfully added to your 